Beyond the Headline Numbers : Platinum’s Supply
Most investors and even some professionals overlook the fundamentals of gold and platinum. Our latest piece highlights platinum’s tightening supply—mine output lags demand, recycling volumes are falling, and new production is years away. The result: a structurally tighter market few are pricing in.
Beyond the Headline Numbers : Platinum’s Supply
Publication
We note that most investors, and even some bankers and journalists are unaware of the essentials of gold and platinum.
We intend to place the above publication in the financial press to increase the awareness of these metals.
We would welcome the opinion of our loyal newsletter readers about this initiative.
Please reach out to: contact@platico.org
Beyond the Headline Numbers : Platinum’s Supply
Mine production alone is forecasted at about ~5.8 Moz—well below total demand of ~8.2 Moz—forcing the market to rely on ~1.4 Moz of recycled platinum just to partially fill the gap.
This reliance on secondary supply is a risk few market participants are pricing correctly. The volume of recyclable platinum is inherently finite—once the “above-ground” supply gets drawn down, which is already happening as above-ground stocks dropped 23% in 2024, this buffer will shrink further.
Despite a small year-on-year uptick, 2024 recycling volumes remain below historical averages, constrained by weak autocatalyst and jewellery scrap markets. Consumers are keeping vehicles longer, while strong new jewellery demand discourages trade-ins and sellbacks, limiting recycling supply.
Platinum’s mined supply remains limited due to ongoing operational challenges in South Africa, which produces circa 70% of the world’s platinum. Developing a new platinum mine typically takes 8–10 years, and no major projects are expected before the 2030s. These factors together continue to limit supply growth. With demand remaining strong and deficits to persist, the platinum market will inevitability become structurally tighter, this could lead to even higher prices.
